Okay, now it's been another three months since my last post. My, my, I'm prolific on this blog. At this rate, I'll be lucky to hit ten posts in a year!
2008 has come and gone, V8i has been released, the economy has tanked, and in less than two weeks we will have a new President. As one of many who work in the infrastructure maketplace, I've wondered: how have your companies been affected? Some fields, like Land Development, are really hurting, since they were tied more closely to the housing bubble. But for others, maybe, maybe not. I work in highways, and as Bentley users I am sure I am not the only one keeping a wary eye on State budgets.
I find it frustrating that despite my best efforts, something usually acts such that I never closely estimate the true cost of constructing a road. Am I really that inept? On second thought... uh, please don't answer that. Anyway, up until two, maybe three years ago, most estimates I put in seemed at least 10 percent or so low. Even as I expected increasing costs and tried to compensate for them, they went up more quickly than a lot of folks could anticipate. Material costs were skyrocketing then, as did fuel, which increased material cost, which... you get the idea. Over the past few years, though, fuel has plummeted, and as federal and construction budgets have ground down, so has demand, and so have material costs. In the last year and a half, most of my estimates have been too high - sometimes greatly so.
I come then, to an ironic conclusion. Budgets for infrastructure have always been too slim for demand - regardless of economic conditions - and barring incredulous outlays, always will be. In good times, demand for such projects is high, so construction costs more and you get less bang for the same buck. Thus,less projects overall are available for design/construction. But in down times, public revenues fall, which means that even though you get more bang for the design/construction buck, there are fewer bucks around in the first place! Catch-22, right? To quote the end line of Finding Nemo, "Now What?"
I think this is the price paid for being in an industry with steady work. Widgets may come and go, but people always need to be able to turn on the lights, take shelter, and get places. The budgets will never support the need, but there will always be finances assigned to these necessities.
Another irony... well, to me, anyway. It's what our New President proposes to do. He's talked about lots of new infrastructure projects to help the economy. Not that I'm complaining - anyone seen the prices of AEC stocks in the last few months? - but it's disturbing in a way that Obama's idea is eerily similar to what FDR proposed back in 1932 with WPA and so on. Not that this is a depression - far from it - but Obama's proposal is disturbing in that it may be a tacit admission of how bad things are economically (let alone where the funds will come from to pay for all these projects).
At the same time, Obama's proposal is also heartwarming, in that it will likely affect most of us Bentley (and other AEC software too) users positively. But it stands to have the potential to positively affect things, not just from keeping people employed or creating new jobs, but because it just might a step in that incredulous direction. One that has been badly needed, since by most measures the support/maintenance/construction for infrastructure has lagged behind the demands of a growing population. Simply having better facilites will improve lifestyle, save time, money - perhaps all three.
But by many (not all) measures, though, the end of the Great Depression came about not due to infrastructure investments, but because of World War II. Yet the current conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan don't seem to be affecting the U.S. economy too positively (and many would argue just the opposite). Of course, one should never fight a war merely to improve the economy, but isn't it ironic that Obama is also looking to lower the scope of U.S. military operations, yet increase spending on infrastructure? It's like what FDR did, but maybe in reverse?
In short, I shudder at talk and comparisons (including my own) of wars and the Great Depression, I like Obama's call for new Infrastructure, and I hope I am able to better estimate its cost in the future.
...just tell me when I get to use MicroStation V8i.
Great post! It seems a lot of people are sitting around at the moment waiting for 'Change' to happen. I'm reminded of the episode of South Park that aired right after the election. As in the episode, some people are terrified and building bunkers (McCain supporters), others are ecstatic and partying in the streets (Obama supporters).